The Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has released a detailed analysis of voting data from the 2023 presidential election, arguing that independent, data-driven findings undermine claims of a broad national movement behind Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.
In a statement issued on Thursday by its spokesman, Mogaji (Hon.) Seye Oladejo, the party referenced an independent report earlier cited by TheCable, describing it as a factual and statistical explanation for what it termed a major paradox of the 2023 polls: Obi’s overwhelming performance in parts of the South-East contrasted with his weak showing across much of the country.
According to the APC, the report highlights significant irregularity indicators concentrated in a few South-East states. Anambra was cited as recording an anomaly rate of 24.9 per cent, Enugu 16.7 per cent, and Imo 10.9 per cent. Together, the party said, these states accounted for a disproportionate share of the 4,351 anomalous polling units identified nationwide out of 123,918 units analysed.
By contrast, the APC noted that Lagos State recorded an anomaly rate of 2.3 per cent, while Oyo State posted 0.3 per cent. The party argued that in an election decided by margins running into hundreds of thousands of votes, such concentrations of statistically improbable results — including what it described as “perfect scores” and suspiciously uniform vote patterns — were electorally significant.
The Lagos APC said the data helps explain why Obi posted dominant margins in parts of the South-East while recording comparatively poor results in the North, South-West, South-South and sections of the Middle Belt, where political competition and scrutiny were stronger.
While acknowledging that Obi enjoyed genuine popularity in the South-East, the party argued that overwhelming dominance in any region can create conditions where electoral malpractice is easier to conceal, citing reduced scrutiny of result sheets and fewer opposition party agents. In more politically pluralistic states, it said, competition among parties and active civil society presence naturally constrain such practices.
The APC further noted that Obi secured 29.1 per cent of total votes cast nationwide and finished third overall in the election. It argued that this outcome, when viewed alongside the data, weakens claims of a stolen mandate and instead points to a regionally concentrated surge that failed to translate into national acceptance.
Reiterating its long-held position, the Lagos APC maintained that electoral malpractice in Nigeria is systemic rather than partisan. It said the report showed that irregularities cut across party lines and followed opportunity rather than ideology, insisting that no political party could claim moral exemption.
Looking ahead to 2027, the party argued that evolving political alignments and recent off-season election outcomes suggest that what it described as a “manufactured regional myth” is already eroding. According to the statement, sustainable electoral success depends on structure, national spread and consistent performance rather than symbolism or grievance-driven narratives.
“The data showed that Obi’s dominance was regional and statistically inflated where scrutiny was weakest,” the statement said, adding that current political realities indicate that even that regional insulation is diminishing.
The Lagos APC concluded by welcoming further independent audits, stronger technological safeguards and the prosecution of electoral offenders across all parties, stressing that democracy is best served by factual analysis rather than emotive narratives.
