By Seye Oladejo, Lagos APC Chieftain
Democracy is not measured by how often the ruling party wins elections. It is measured by whether citizens retain the freedom to choose their leaders—and whether that choice is respected, even when the outcome is inconvenient to those in power.
The re-election of Governor Ademola Adeleke in Osun State is therefore bigger than the victory of one candidate, one party or one state. It is a significant statement about the resilience of Nigeria’s democracy and a powerful rebuttal to the increasingly popular narrative that Nigeria is drifting inevitably towards a one-party state.
Adeleke’s victory demonstrates that Nigeria’s political space remains competitive, that voters cannot be taken for granted and that the ballot box can still surprise even the most confident political strategists.
Osun and the Myth of a One-Party State
For months, political discourse has been dominated by concerns over the possibility of a one-party Nigeria. The defection of politicians into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the weakening of opposition structures and the emergence of new political alliances have understandably raised questions about the future of opposition politics.
But Osun has provided an important reality check.
If Nigeria were truly marching inexorably towards a one-party state, an incumbent governor contesting outside the ruling party and securing re-election would hardly constitute evidence of a closed democratic space.
The electorate has once again demonstrated where ultimate political authority resides: with the people.
Parties may mobilise, politicians may strategise, governments may campaign and influential individuals may deploy their networks. But when the ballots are counted, voters have the final word.
The Osun result therefore punctures the assumption that the APC’s growing political strength automatically translates into victory in every electoral contest.
It does not.
A ruling party can win elections and lose elections. Opposition parties can struggle in one state and triumph in another. Political fortunes rise and fall. That uncertainty is not a weakness of democracy; it is one of its defining features.
There Is No Such Thing as an Invincible Ruling Party
There is no concept in democracy known as the “invincibility of the ruling party.”
No ruling party, regardless of its structure, influence, resources, incumbency or political pedigree, possesses a permanent certificate of victory.
Democracy is inherently uncertain because citizens reserve the right to change their minds.
Political circumstances change. Government performance is assessed. Candidates change. Alliances shift. Public sentiment evolves. Ultimately, voters make their choices.
That is why no electoral victory should ever be treated as guaranteed.
A ruling party may possess formidable political machinery and still lose an election. An opposition party may appear disadvantaged and still prevail. Osun is a timely reminder that every electoral mandate must be earned afresh.
This should be a sobering lesson for every political party, including the APC. Political strength must never become political complacency. Every election should be treated as a new contest, every mandate fought for and every voter regarded as a sovereign participant—not a guaranteed supporter.
The idea of an inevitable one-party state, therefore, appears to have been more political anxiety than democratic reality. If a ruling party can lose an election, then it is not invincible. And if an opposition party can still win, then the democratic space remains open.
The ultimate power in a democracy does not permanently belong to the ruling party.
It belongs to the people.
A Vote Against Political Fatalism
Another important lesson from Osun is that the Nigerian electorate should never be regarded as politically predictable.
Voters do not necessarily transfer their allegiance wholesale from one election to another. Their choices may be influenced by candidates, personalities, performance, party platforms, local considerations, economic realities and numerous other factors.
The same electorate can make different choices at different times.
That is not political inconsistency. That is democracy.
Politicians who assume that yesterday’s support automatically guarantees tomorrow’s votes do so at their own peril.
An election is not an inheritance. It is a fresh contract between the people and those seeking to govern them.
Tinubu and the Test of Democratic Credentials
The Osun election also provides an opportunity to examine the broader debate about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s commitment to democratic governance.
A president’s democratic credentials should not be judged solely by the elections won by his political party. They should also be assessed by how elections are conducted—and how their outcomes are handled—when the ruling party does not prevail.
Osun is instructive in this regard.
The fact that an opposition candidate has won a major governorship election while the APC controls the Federal Government reinforces the argument that Nigeria’s democracy still accommodates genuine political competition.
President Tinubu’s reported acceptance of the outcome and his congratulatory gesture towards Governor Adeleke also deserve recognition.
Democracy is not merely about celebrating when your candidate wins. It is equally about respecting the people’s verdict when your candidate loses.
That is where democratic credentials are truly tested.
If the Federal Government were determined to impose predetermined outcomes, Osun would have presented an opportunity to demonstrate such an inclination. Instead, the electorate has spoken and the result has been respected.
That reality should inform the assessment of President Tinubu’s democratic credentials—not partisan assumptions.
The President Must Be Bigger Than His Party
A president is the leader of a political party, but he is also the President of the entire federation.
That distinction is fundamental.
The true test of statesmanship is the ability to rise above narrow partisan calculations and protect democratic institutions that serve everyone, including political opponents.
President Tinubu’s responsibility is not to guarantee APC victory in every state. His responsibility is to ensure an environment in which Nigerians can freely choose their leaders.
If the APC wins, it should win because Nigerians voted for it.
If the APC loses, the result should still be respected because the same Nigerians have spoken.
That is how democracy matures.
Adeleke’s Victory Comes With Responsibility
Governor Adeleke must also recognise that the symbolism of his victory comes with an equally significant responsibility.
The people of Osun have renewed his mandate. The campaign is over; governance must now take centre stage.
His second term should be defined by measurable progress in infrastructure, education, healthcare, security, job creation and economic opportunity.
The electorate has given him another opportunity to serve. He must justify the confidence reposed in him.
An electoral victory is not the destination. It is permission to govern.
A Message for 2027
The Osun election may ultimately prove to be one of the most instructive political developments on the road to 2027.
It tells the opposition that the political space remains open.
It tells the ruling party that power must never be confused with entitlement.
It tells politicians that voters cannot be permanently owned.
And, most importantly, it tells Nigerians that democracy remains capable of producing surprises.
The deeper lesson from Osun is not simply that Adeleke won. It is that the ballot remains bigger than the party, the voter remains bigger than the politician and democracy remains bigger than whoever happens to be in power.
The myth of an inevitable one-party state has suffered a significant blow.
At the same time, President Tinubu’s democratic credentials can draw strength from the reality that a candidate outside his ruling party has won a major governorship election and that the outcome has been accepted.
That is not the death of democracy.
That is democracy at work.
Adeleke’s re-election is therefore more than an Osun story. It is a national democratic reminder that there is no such thing as an invincible ruling party.
In a democracy, nothing can be taken for granted.
Every election is a new contest. Every mandate must be earned. And the people always have the final word.
