Nigeria’s gross revenue shared among the three tiers of government rose to N31.46tn between January and September 2026, surpassing the full-year collections recorded in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, according to a new report by Agora Policy.
The report, titled “Ten Insights from FAAC Disbursements for January–September 2026,” showed that the amount generated within the first nine months of 2026 was higher than the N28.74tn recorded throughout 2024 and represented approximately 88 per cent of the N35.81tn collected in 2025.
Despite the increase in revenue, the policy research organisation cautioned that collections remained volatile, the pace of growth was slowing, and mineral revenue fell significantly below budget expectations.
The report, obtained on Wednesday, disclosed that the Federal Government received approximately N7.35tn from the distributions during the nine-month period, while state governments received N7.01tn and local governments received N4.92tn.
According to the report, statutory revenue accounted for N24.25tn, representing 77.1 per cent of the N31.46tn gross receipts, while Value Added Tax contributed N7.21tn, or 22.9 per cent.
Of the total gross revenue, N20.36tn, representing 65 per cent, was available for distribution before augmentation. The remaining N11.10tn, equivalent to 35 per cent, went towards savings, interventions, refunds, transfers and collection costs.
The report added that total distributions amounted to N20.81tn after the inclusion of a N450bn augmentation.
Oil-producing states received N1.53tn through the 13 per cent derivation principle, which allocates a share of relevant oil revenue to states where the resources are extracted. The derivation allocation is reported separately but also accrues to state governments.
Agora Policy noted that the N31.46tn collected in the first nine months of 2026 represented a 12.6 per cent increase, or N3.51tn, compared with the N27.95tn recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
However, the report highlighted a slowdown in the rate of revenue growth, noting that the N3.51tn increase recorded in the first nine months of 2026 was less than half the N8.97tn increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
It attributed part of the sharp revenue increase in 2024 to the foreign exchange and petrol subsidy reforms introduced in 2023, which plausibly contributed to higher naira-denominated receipts.
The organisation also observed that tax reform implementation and higher oil prices associated with the conflict in Iran might have supported revenue growth in 2026. However, it stressed that aggregate figures alone could not determine the precise contribution of individual factors.
Average monthly gross revenue stood at N3.50tn in the first nine months of 2026, compared with N2.98tn for the whole of 2025.
The report further showed that gross FAAC revenue increased from N9.23tn in 2021 to N12.34tn in 2022, N16.28tn in 2023, N28.74tn in 2024 and N35.81tn in 2025. The largest annual increase occurred in 2024, when collections rose by 76.5 per cent.
The 2026 nine-month total was 240.8 per cent higher than the full-year figure for 2021, 154.5 per cent above the 2022 total, 93.2 per cent above the 2023 figure and 9.5 per cent higher than the 2024 collection.
Agora Policy, however, warned that the comparisons were based on nominal figures and did not account for inflation or changes in the purchasing power of the naira.
Projecting the nine-month collection pace across the full year would put gross revenue at approximately N41.95tn by December 2026. The report clarified that this was a simple annualised estimate rather than a formal forecast, as seasonal revenue peaks could affect actual collections.
It also warned that fluctuations in crude oil prices and exchange rates could either increase or reduce government receipts during the remaining months of the year.
The report urged caution in interpreting the revenue figures, emphasising the importance of sustainable fiscal planning and effective management of public resources amid volatile receipts and revenue shortfalls in the mineral sector.
